GU TABLE OF CHAMPIONS:
Gold major size buy-side HSR: $1033, $887
Gold intermediate size buy-side HSR: $1250, $1225, $1200, $1150.
Sell-side HSR major size: $1392, $1523.
Sell-side HSR intermediate size: $1300, $1338, $1430, $1470
Silver: buy-side: $15, $13.50, $9.50, $7
Sell-side: $22, $26
HUI buy-side HSR: 155, 100. Sell-side: 250, 300, 360
Uranium (U.to) buy-side HSR: $4, $3.50 Sell-side: $5.50, $8, $9.40
US Dow buy-side: 18,400. 14,200. Sell: 26,000-27,000
Bombay BSE major buy-side HSR: 21,200. Sell-side: 30,000.
Indian “Dow” INDA-NYSE buy-side: $31, $29, $26, $23, $20, $19.
Indian “Dow” INDA-NYSE sell-side: $33, $48, $68, $95.
Chinese “Dow” FXI-NYSE buy-side: $38, $34, $28, $24, $18, $16.
Sell-side: $44, $50, $60.
SPIDER MAN (SPDR GOLD FUND GLD-NYSE) Tonnage: 738
IAU ISHARES GOLD FUND (IAU-NYSE) Tonnage: 283
SPDR SILVER FUND (SLV-NYSE) Aprox Tonnage: 9692
Next CRIMEX Gold Option Expiry Scams: May28
Next FOMC Scams: June 19
Next RBI Scams: June 6, Aug 7, Oct 4, Dec 5
Next BOJ Scams:
Full Moons (for those who are interested): May 18, June 17
Next US Jobs Report Scams: 830am June 7
Estimated Next SAFE gold reserves report: June 10
Chinese Holidays: https://gracelandupdates.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2019jan15chinaholidays.png Click link.
PGEN: Pyramid Generator (Systematic Capital Allocation)
US Stock Market Crash Season: Aug 7 - Oct 31.
The IRS and the Fed are giant mafias that empower government size growth, debt growth, and ruin citizen lives.
The bull era: China. India. The banksters. YOU.
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GU PGEN MARINES DAILY UPDATE
May 27, 2019
- Memorial Day is here.
- It’s a good time for reflection.
- Is government debt and spending under only a democrat administration bad, or is it also bad under a republican administration, and, if so, to what degree?
- Should you just buy gold when a democrat gets elected and sell when a republican gets elected?
- That certainly worked marvellously in the case of Carter-Reagan. It didn’t work at all in the case of Clinton-Bush.
- The big 1970s gold bull run followed the legalization of gold ownership in the late 1960s after confiscation in the 1930s under demorat Roosevelt.
- The 1970s bull run for gold reached a crescendo with Jimmy Carter’s demorat administration in power.
- There’s no question that the proper use of debt in the private sector can create incredibly successful companies. The big question for gold investors: Can a republican administration do as well with government debt as private companies do, or does the nature of government make that very difficult or even impossible?
- It can be argued that the rise of China played a big role in gold’s bull run from the year 2002, with republican Bush in power.
- Leaving politics aside, studies show that for US investors, a portfolio of 40% bonds, 40% stocks, and 20% gold has outperformed all others over the long term.
- An argument can also be made that US government size and debt has reached a level so big that in today’s world, even the most pro-growth republican administration can’t overcome that with their policies.
- It’s up to YOU to decide how much weight to put in that argument in regards to YOUR percentage of gold ownership in your portfolio.
- There are black swans like Deutsche Bank. While the use of clearinghouses for OTC derivatives has increased dramatically and the probability of another OTCD crisis thus diminished, the probability is not zero by any means.
- My base case for owning gold is four-fold; a black swan event is one of the four pillars. It’s just common sense to own insurance and gold is the best black swan event insurance.
- Second, the rise of 3 billion gold-oriented Chindians. It’s just common sense that with gold as an official asset class like stocks and bonds there, I want to own exposure to that rising and truly gargantuan world via gold.
- Third, the US fear trade. If Trump was elected in a world where there was little existing government size and debt, and the dollar was at the start of its lifecycle, the fear trade centred on US government size and debt might not be the issue that it is now, and likely wouldn’t be.
- If that was the case, Ray Dalio would not be talking about the next crisis being a dollar crisis. He’d be talking about a simple and mild economic recession.
- But, this is real world now, not theoretical world “then”, so I want exposure to gold to manage that US government size and debt fear trade risk.
- Fourth, the simple performance numbers. Forget the other three pillars and just think about performance. Gold as 20% of a portfolio, stocks as 40%, bonds as 40%. The bottom line:
- If you want to be a winner that doesn’t sell in terror in the trough of your stock and bond market drawdown zone, you probably want to own 20% gold in your portfolio.
- A lot of gold bugs want to tie growth and rising stock markets to the actions of republican administrations, and debt and economic downturn to demorat administrations, and over the long term, there’s no question that socialism collapses as it grows to the implosion point.
- Having said that, gold is much more than a republican sell casino chip and a demorat buy casino chip. Obsession with politics kept amateur investors out of the stock market in 2009 and has them loaded up now.
- Whether that works out for them or not is unknown. My focus on markets is not about politics in the short or medium term. It’s about asset classes, traffic lights, HSR, and pgen action.
- Gridtime! Please click here now: https://gracelandupdates.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2019may27oil.png That’s an ugly chart for oil, and where oil goes, so goes the US stock market that is oil earnings oriented. The frackers need $60 oil consistently. It’s not in play, at least not now, and with global growth slipping and US production rising, how does it get in play? Please click here now: https://gracelandupdates.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2019may27sgs1.png That’s a look at my long-term SP500 buy and sell traffic light signals. When there’s a buy signal, I suggest that stock market investors focus on growth stocks and go to 70%-100% invested, basis the size of the account being used to follow the signals. Since 1999, the system has not flashed a bad buy signal. Is it due to do so now? Interestingly, my short-term signal is on a sell, and on Friday my medium-term signal went to a sell. So, basis the system, stock market investors would be 70% invested, short-term short with 10% of the acnt, and in 20% cash basis the medium-term signal. From a fundamental standpoint, the oil price looks shaky, earnings are so-so and fading. That fits with the short and medium term sell signals in play for the stock market. Whether the big buy signal holds or fails could be determined by the global trade talks. The business cycle isn’t going to stop maturing, but some kind of “incredibly good news” trade deal could get institutions buying. On the other hand, please click here now: https://gracelandupdates.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2019may27rare1.png I cover rare earth in my juniors newsletter where the junior pgen marines are in money making action right here, right now. The “excitement” begins when the 90day extension for Huawei runs out. Trump has a history of not extending extensions and China produces 70% of the world’s rare earths. Xi and his trade advisor visited a rare earth factory a week ago. The bottom line: Will the SP500 buy signal of size hold, or will it follow the short term and medium term signals, and wiener-wagon into a sell? Strong arguments can be made for either scenario, but I suggest YOU make a strong argument for YOUR professionalism and YOUR patience. I’ll put odds at 60% that the big buy flunks, and turns to a sell, but I’m not taking any sell-side action with my long-term stock market positions until it does. Please click here now: https://gracelandupdates.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2019may27usd1.png Along with oil, another significant concern for team Risk-On should be the action of the dollar against the yen. It’s clearly a general risk-off theme, albeit a very mild one. Again, this fits with the short-term traffic light signals, the buy signal on T-bonds, the oil price decline, and the general level of institutional concern about the business cycle and the global growth slowdown. Investors need to change with the times to stay relevant and get richer. It’s a new era where growth and gold can co-exist but it’s also one where all the traditional drivers of gold, bonds, and stock markets can still take centre stage at any time. It’s a world where oil can crash while gold soars, and a world where oil can soar while gold soars. In a lot of ways, it’s a more positive world that allows younger, newer, and fresher thinking investors to prosper with professional asset class allocation rather than a wild all-or-none marriage and divorce approach to investing in just one asset class at a time. It might be Memorial Day, but maybe it should be called Asset Class Refreshment Day for you? Let’s march to its gridlines now, and I’ll see you there!